Modelling cholera in periodic environments

نویسندگان

  • Drew Posny
  • Jin Wang
چکیده

We propose a deterministic compartmental model for cholera dynamics in periodic environments. The model incorporates seasonal variation into a general formulation for the incidence (or, force of infection) and the pathogen concentration. The basic reproduction number of the periodic model is derived, based on which a careful analysis is conducted on the epidemic and endemic dynamics of cholera. Several specific examples are presented to demonstrate this general model, and numerical simulation results are used to validate the analytical prediction.

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

An Optimal Cost Effectiveness Study on Zimbabwe Cholera Seasonal Data from 2008–2011

Incidence of cholera outbreak is a serious issue in underdeveloped and developing countries. In Zimbabwe, after the massive outbreak in 2008-09, cholera cases and deaths are reported every year from some provinces. Substantial number of reported cholera cases in some provinces during and after the epidemic in 2008-09 indicates a plausible presence of seasonality in cholera incidence in those re...

متن کامل

MULTIPLE PERIODIC SOLUTIONS FOR A CLASS OF NON-AUTONOMOUS AND CONVEX HAMILTONIAN SYSTEMS

In this paper we study Multiple periodic solutions for a class of non-autonomous and convex Hamiltonian systems and we investigate use some properties of Ekeland index.  

متن کامل

THE REVIEW OF ALMOST PERIODIC SOLUTIONS TO A STOCHASTIC DIERENTIAL EQUATION

This paper proves the existence and uniqueness of quadratic mean almost periodic mild so-lutions for a class of stochastic dierential equations in a real separable Hilbert space. Themain technique is based upon an appropriate composition theorem combined with the Banachcontraction mapping principle and an analytic semigroup of linear operators.  

متن کامل

An agent-based modeling approach applied to the spread of cholera

Cholera is an intestinal disease and is characterized by diarrhea and severe dehydration. While cholera has mainly been eliminated in regions that can provide clean water, adequate hygiene and proper sanitation; it remains a constant threat in many parts of Africa and Asia. Within this paper, we develop an agent-based model that explores the spread of cholera in the Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya...

متن کامل

Spatial dependency of V. cholera prevalence on open space refuse dumps in Kumasi, Ghana: a spatial statistical modelling

BACKGROUND Cholera has persisted in Ghana since its introduction in the early 70's. From 1999 to 2005, the Ghana Ministry of Health officially reported a total of 26,924 cases and 620 deaths to the WHO. Etiological studies suggest that the natural habitat of V. cholera is the aquatic environment. Its ability to survive within and outside the aquatic environment makes cholera a complex health pr...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره 8  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2014